Great Investments

In 2006, we didn't like the fundamentals for the U.S. stock market, so we decided to "cease active trading in the U.S. stock market" on expectations of "a tougher market for traders in coming months/years." We did "a strategic reallocation from the overall U.S. stock market to undervalued commodity stocks." Unfortunately, we didn't anticipate that the collapse in the U.S. financial markets would have such far-reaching ramifications, devastating commodity stocks along with the rest of the stock market.

While we continue to hold our portfolio of undervalued commodity stocks for the long term, as we believe commodity stocks will be big winners when the global economy recovers from the current recession amidst decreased future supply combined with recovering demand and high inflation, we have resumed active trading of the U.S. stock market in our trading accounts. We believe that for the foreseeable future, the overall U.S stock market will be a great market for active trading, and not such a great buy and hold market outside of commodity stocks.

We resumed active trading of the overall U.S. stock market in our dormant trading accounts 3 months ago (on October 10, when we had a buy signal), focusing on the market indexes rather than individual stocks, as the wide swings in the overall market have overwhelmed most stock picking in this volatile market. During this time, we've been developing our trading model based on a variety of technical indicators to time the significant turns in the U.S. stock market. We've had tremendous success with this model to date, as it has predicted every significant turn in the market over the past 3 months. It's still a work in progress, and we continue to fine tune it, but we plan to post its changes to market allocation to establish a published track record.

For those interested in the trading model's market allocation changes, please see the Great Trades blog.

By WARREN E. BUFFETT
Omaha

THE financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher. In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary.

So ... I’ve been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I’m talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. (This description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed to philanthropy.) If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities.

Why?

A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.

Let me be clear on one point: I can’t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.

A little history here: During the Depression, the Dow hit its low, 41, on July 8, 1932. Economic conditions, though, kept deteriorating until Franklin D. Roosevelt took office in March 1933. By that time, the market had already advanced 30 percent. Or think back to the early days of World War II, when things were going badly for the United States in Europe and the Pacific. The market hit bottom in April 1942, well before Allied fortunes turned. Again, in the early 1980s, the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the economy was in the tank. In short, bad news is an investor’s best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America’s future at a marked-down price.

Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.

You might think it would have been impossible for an investor to lose money during a century marked by such an extraordinary gain. But some investors did. The hapless ones bought stocks only when they felt comfort in doing so and then proceeded to sell when the headlines made them queasy.

Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn’t. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts.

Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree. Those investors who cling now to cash are betting they can efficiently time their move away from it later. In waiting for the comfort of good news, they are ignoring Wayne Gretzky’s advice: “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been.”

I don’t like to opine on the stock market, and again I emphasize that I have no idea what the market will do in the short term. Nevertheless, I’ll follow the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then advertised: “Put your mouth where your money was.” Today my money and my mouth both say equities.

Warren E. Buffett is the chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway, a diversified holding company.